New Delhi: The last vote has been cast in Bihar Assembly elections. On November 24, the results will be declared and a new government will be formed in the state. So who is going to be the winner in this mother of all battles between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad?As the most credible channel and one with the sharpest election analysis, CNN-IBN and THE Week have done a post poll survey in Bihar. These are the results based on the first five phases of the six-phase election.CNN-IBN and The Week Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS estimates that the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance is likely to get 46 per cent votes while its nearest rival, Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) alliance is likely to get 27 per cent votes.The Congress is likely to get just nine per cent votes while others including the Left Front is likely to get 18 per cent votes.On the basis of that vote Projection, CNN-IBN has come up with it's own seat projection for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2010.In 2000 the Lalu-Rabri combine was the preferred choice of 26 per cent people, while Nitish Kumar was preferred by just five per cent people. By 2004, Nitish had narrowed the gap and in 2005 February the gap narrowed further.By October 2005 the tables had turned and Nitish was now the preferred choice of 43 per cent people, as compared to just 28 per cent backing Lalu and Rabri.By the time of the General elections in 2009, Nitish had consolidated his lead over Lalu and Rabri.Now our post-poll survey shows Nitish with 54 per cent people wanting him as the next Chief Minister has maintained a considerable lead over Lalu-Rabri, who have just 28 per cent people backing them. Nitish Kumar is way ahead of his nearest rival Most preferred choice for CM….. 2000 2004 2005 Feb 2005 Oct 2009 2010 Lalu Yadav + Rabri Devi 26 29 29 28 23 28 Nitish Kumar 5 22 24 43 60 54 Note: All figures in per cent.The JDU-BJP combine is likely to get 187 to 203 seats; the RJD-LJP combine is likely to get 19 to 29 seats while the Congress is a distant third and is likely to get between six and 12 seats.Others including the Left Front are likely to get between 10 and 20 seats.If the survery results are right then it will be a big change from what happened in November 2005 elections. Then the JDU-BJP combine had won 143 seats, RJD and LJP together had 64 seats while Congress won just nine seats. Smaller parties and Independents had won 27 seats. Self image of Bihar seems to have improved in last five years Where would you place Bihar on the development ladder … 2005 October 2010 High (Step 1) 9 17 Medium (Step 2, 3, 4) 20 55 Low (Step 5, 6, 7, 8) 19 15 Bottom (Step 9,10) 52 13 Note: All figures in per cent Nitish Kumar's report card: Strengths In the last five year……. Better Worse Safety of women 85 2 Condition of government schools 72 7 Condition of roads 67 9 Condition of government hospitals 63 7 Rangdari / extortion 60 9 Job Opportunities 41 16 Note: All figures in per cent. All others said remained same or had no opinion on the question. Nitish Kumar's report card: Weaknesses In the last five year……. Better Worse Controlling Inflation 3 91 Controlling Corruption 36 36 Power supply 28 18 Irrigation facilities 19 21 Note: All figures in per cent. All others said remained same or had no opinion on the question. Social Basis of voting NDA RJD + LJP Congress Brahmin 64 9 21 Bhumihar 48 5 11 Rajput 68 14 10 Other Upper Caste 89 5 2 Yadav 18 73 2 Kurmi – Koeri 70 8 5 Other OBC 63 13 3 Charmkars 41 20 5 Pasi 25 56 8 Other SC 52 14 5 Muslims 27 31 24 Others 47 20 8 Note: All figures in per cent. All others voted for other smaller parties and independent candidates. The JD (U) – BJP does well among all sections. Both of them succeed in transferring a fair share of their vote to partners. Vote for NDA in seats where JD (U) contested Vote for NDA in seats where BJP contested All 47 44 Upper Caste 59 68 Yadav 16 20 Koeri Kurmi 84 53 EBC 66 59 Dalit 38 37 Muslims 34 15 Others 36 60 Note: All figures in per cent Lok Jan Shakti performs poorly among all sections. RJD statics to transfer its Yadav Votes but LJP fails to transfer its Dalit base to RJD Vote for RJD - LJP in seats where RJD contested Vote for RJD - LJP in seats where LJP contested All 29 23 Upper Caste 10 3 Yadav 75 36 Koeri Kurmi 9 6 EBC 14 11 Dalit 27 45 Muslims 37 20 Others 20 21 Note: All figures in per cent Vote Consolidations over the year behind BJP – JD (U) Election Year Upper Caste Vote Consolidations Kurmi Koeri Vote polarization Decisive Shift of EBC Votes 1996 77 69 36 1998 75 -* 41 1999 71 71 45 2000 49 50 25 2004 63 64 36 2005 Feb 50 40 26 2005 Oct. 65 61 48 2009 65 62 58 2010 63 70 63 Note: All figures in per cent. * Sample Size is too low Among Muslim Voters JD (U) leads when in direct contest with RJD and LJP, RJD and Congress gets most Muslim Votes when pitted against BJP Division of Muslim Votes….. NDA RJD + LJP Congress Others All 26 31 24 19 JD (U) Vs RJD 36 33 21 20 BJP Vs RJD 21 43 17 19 JD (U) Vs LJP 30 18 23 29 BJP Vs LJP 8 22 42 28 Note: All figures in per cent. Bataidar Bill had no affect on vote for NDA Heard about Bataidari Bill…. Vote for NDA among those who have Heard about the bill Vote for NDA among those who have not heard about the bill All 48 44 Upper Caste 59 66 Big Farmers 43 41 Small Farmers 45 49 Agricultural workers 42 40 Note: All figures in per cent. Nitish succeeded in dividing Dalit community Maha Dalit Policy would benefit Maha Dalits Maha Dalit Policy is just a vote bank politics Pasi 22 70 Charmkars 52 41 Other Dalits 56 39 Note: All figures in per cent. JD (U) – BJP leads even amongst poorer sections of the society Economic Class NDA RJD + LJP Congress Upper 58 22 12 Middle 53 24 12 Lower 46 31 6 Poor 41 26 9 Note: All figures in per cent. NDA is more popular among Urban Voters NDA RJD + LJP Congress Others Rural 45 27 9 19 Urban 56 26 11 7 Note: All figures in per cent. Even Non Literate tend to vote more for NDA NDA RJD + LJP Congress Others Non Literate 40 30 7 23 Upto Primary 45 30 9 16 Upto Matric (Class 10) 50 26 10 14 College and Above 57 18 13 12 Note: All figures in per cent.A post-poll study by Lokniti, CSDS: MethodologyThe findings presented here are from the first five phases of a post-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi. A total of 4470 persons randomly selected from the latest electoral rolls were interviewed after the polling day in 292 locations spread across 73 randomly selected constituencies in the state.Some data from the fifth phase and all the data from the sixth phase was not available at the time of writing this report. The sample so far comprises 45 per cent women, 17 per cent Dalits, 18 per cent Muslims and 90 per cent villagers, which is quite representative of the areas that went to polls in the first five phases.The interviews were conducted face to face at the place of residence of the respondent using a structured questionnaire in the language spoken and understood by the respondent.The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey. The fieldwork was coordinated by Rakesh Ranjan (Lokniti state coordinator of Bihar).The team that designed coordinated and analyzed the survey at CSDS comprised of Amrish Pandey, Banasmita Bora, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Divya Vaid, Himanshu Bhattacharya, KAQA Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Kunal Singh, Rahul Verma, Sanjeer Alam, Shreyas Sardesai, Suhas Palshikar and Yogendra Yadav.