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Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

First published: December 19, 2012, 8:08 PM IST | Updated: December 19, 2012
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Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats
The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him.

New Delhi: Narendra Modi will continue to lord over Gujarat for the next five years as he is all set to score a hat-trick of electoral victories and lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, Modi will steamroll the opposition and become the chief minister of Gujarat once again.

The post-poll survey of 3755 persons at 239 locations in 60 constituencies in Gujarat shows that Modi is going to better the 2002 and 2007 results and win by a very handsome margin. While the BJP will have a vote percentage of 48, the party is going to win 129-141 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly) with the Congress trailing far behind with 36 per cent of the votes and its worst show in the state with only 37 to 45 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007). The other smaller parties would garner 16 per cent of the votes and end up with 4 to 10 seats (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

What is surprising that even though the BJP is losing one per cent of the votes as compared to the 2007 elections, the party is set to win at least 12 seats more than last time. The Congress's votes too is down two per cent from the 2007 figure and the other smaller parties are also losing four per cent votes all of which is being cornered by Keshubahi Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which didn't exist in 2007.

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him. In fact, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. Despite Keshubhai Patel's GPP being strong in the Leuva Patel-dominated Saurashtra, it is the BJP which is getting the maximum votes there. In North Gujarat, the BJP gets 54 per cent of the votes and it is only Central Gujarat where the Congress comes within touching distance of its political opponent.

In Saurashtra and Kutch (54 seats), the BJP is ahead of the Congress with the GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of both the national parties. IN North Gujarat (53) the BJP is comfortably ahead of the Congress while in Central Gujarat (40) even as the BJP leads but there is close contest in some regions. In South Gujarat (35), too, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress.

In the race for the chief minister, too, Modi faces no opposition as 46 per cent of the voters prefer him with his closest rival Shankersinh Vaghela getting just six per cent of votes. The 2012 figure is the highest rating that Modi has enjoyed.

The most important election issues were price rise, electricity/water/road, farmers' issues/problems, employment, corruption, Gujarat's development and Gujarat's leadership in that order. Not surprisingly the BJP is considered to be the best suited to deal tackles the problems.

But Modi's leadership is not a big issue with 55 per cent of the voters saying they would have backed the BJP even if Modi had not been the party leader, which is a fall of six per cent from the 2007 figure of 61 per cent.

GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS – PHASES I & II TOGETHER

Gujarat post poll projections
PartyVotes Seats
BJP48%129-141
INC36%37-45
OTH 16%4-10
Methodology
Key facts about the Survey
Time period when survey was conducted13-18 Dec 2012
Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held60
Number of Polling Stations where survey was held239
Number of respondents targeted7200
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)3755
Sample profile
Social BackgroundShare in total population/electorateShare in Post Poll survey sample
Women4847
Urban3835
SC78
ST1515
Hindu8992
Muslim96

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; Figures for Urban, SC, ST, Hindu, and Muslim share in total population are based on Census 2001.

Estimated vote-shares
Party2007 Actual Result 2012 Post Poll EstimateEstimated Change since 2007
BJP4948-1
Congress3836-2
GPP-7+7
Others139-4

Note: All figures are in per cent; GPP or Gujarat Parivartan Party did not exist in 2007

Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll survey
PartyOct 2012 Pre Poll EstimateDec 2012 Post Poll EstimateChange since Pre poll
BJP5048-2
Congress36360
GPP37+4
Others119-2

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 13 Dec and 18 Dec 2012.

Gap between BJP and Congress
Party1995 199820022007Dec 2012 (Estimate)
BJP4345504948
Congress3335393836
Difference10 pts.10 pts.11 pts.11 pts.12 pts.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others

Opinion on re electing the incumbent government
Should the BJP Govt. get another chance?2007BJP govt.Dec 2012BJP govt
Yes4849
No3639
Can’t say/No opinion1615

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in Post Poll survey of 2007.

Vote share by region
PartySaurashtra North GujaratCentral Gujarat South Gujarat
BJP44(-4)54(+2)48(+3)45(-6)
INC34(-3)35(-2)43(+2)33(-4)
Others22(+7)11(0)9(-5)22(+10)

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Regional pattern
REGIONAL TRENDPatelsKolis
Saurashtra & Kutch (54)BJP ahead of Congress. GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of Congress and BJP
North Gujarat (53)BJP comfortably ahead of Congress.
Central Gujarat (40)BJP ahead of Congress but contest close in some parts.
South Gujarat (35)BJP way ahead of Congress.

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Pre poll and post poll comparison of ’Preference for Chief Minister’
Chief Minister preferencePre PollOct 2012 Post PollDec 2012
Narendra Modi4946
Keshubhai Patel85
Shankersinh Vaghela69
Shaktisinh Gohil42
Arjun Modhwadia33

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Preference for Chief Minister over the years
YearsPREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER
ModiVaghelaKeshubhai
200237166
200431136
20074283
20094574
20124695

All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures for 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012 are from Post Poll Surveys; Figures for 2002 are from a Pre Poll Survey.

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference highest among… 
Upper Castes59
College and above57
Upto 25 Years of age53

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference lowest among… 
Muslims17
Upto Primary40
56 and above43

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Pre poll and post poll comparison of ’satisfaction with the incumbent government’
Governments’ performancePre PollOct 2012 Post Poll Dec 2012
Satisfied7160
Dissatisfied1931
Can’t say109

Note: All figures are in per cent

Comparison by states of ’satisfaction with the incumbent government’
Assessment of 2012 GovtsGujarat 2012Punjab 2012Assam 2011Bihar 2010
Satisfied60556477
Dissatisfied31382519

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Comparison by states of ’satisfaction with the incumbent government’
Assessment of 2012 GovtsMaharashtra 2009MP 2008Chhattisgarh 2008Delhi 2008
Satisfied61777565
Dissatisfied32141229

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Important issues for the voters in 2012
Most important election issueAllWomen
Price rise2831
Electricity/Water/Road problems1819
Farmers’ issues/problems1312
Employment119
Corruption98
Gujarat’s development99
Gujarat’s leadership33

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Preference of party for dealing with different issues
Party best for…CongBJPBoth
For Gujarat’s development26486
For dealing with terrorism223912
For India’s development2738130

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or had no opinion

Party comparison of important consideration while voting
What mattered more while voting – Party or Candidate?AllBJP votersCong votersGPP voters
Party53575927
Candidate37373253
Can’t say106920

Note: All figures are in per cent

Breakdown of reasons for preferring party over candidate
How did those who voted for Party and not candidate vote…AllBJP votersCong votersGPP voters
Party40473150
Candidate25232834
Can’t say312735203

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Breakdown of reasons for preferring candidate over party
How did those who voted for Candidate and not party vote…AllPatelsKshatriyas
Voted for Candidate’s Reputation10511
Voted for Candidate’s Caste/community13325
Voted for Candidate’s work654975
Voted for Candidate because of family ties456

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Importance of Narendra Modi’s leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP’s leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did?20072012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did6155
No, would have voted differently1017
Can’t say2928

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

Importance of Narendra Modi’s leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP’s leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did?BJP votersCong votersOthers’ voters
200720122007201220072012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did766662514432
No, would have voted differently91912171914
 151526323754

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY

Castes and community voting preference
 CongBJPOthers
Upper caste22 (-4)60(-9)18(+13)
Patels10(-11)61(-10)30(+21)
Kshatriya40(+1)55(+8)5(-9)
Koli36(-16)54(+12)10(+4)
Other OBC28(-10)56(+2)16(+8)
SC61(+5)25(-9)14(+4)
ST43(+10)33(-5)24(-5)
Muslims69(+2)21(-1)10(-1)
Others21(-5)70(+9)9(-4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference of Patels
PatelsBJPCongGPPOthers
Karwa Patel80(-5)6(-2)6(+6)8(+1)
Leuva Patel52(-3)12(-22)32(+32)4(-7)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by age group
Age groupCongBJPOthers
18-25 years33(-7)52(+3)15(+4)
26-35 years37(-1)48(-1)15(+2)
36-45 years36(-3)48(+2)16(+1)
46-55 years34(-1)47(-7)19(+8)
56+ yearss37(-1)45(-3)17(+4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by educational background
EducationCongBJPOthers
Non literate42(+2)45(+3)13(-5)
Up to primary40(-1)43(-2)17(+3)
Up to matric30(-7)53(+1)17(+6)
College educated24(-9)56(-3)20(+12)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by gender
GenderCongBJPOthers
Men35(-2)49(-1)16(+2)
Women37(-2)47(-2)16(+4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by locality
LocalityCongBJPOthers
Rural37(-3)47(+1)16(+2)
Urban33(-1)49(-9)18(+10)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference of RSS-VHP sympathizers
Vote preference of RSS-VHP ’sympathizers’20072012
BJP7161
Cong2526
Others413

Note: All figures are in per cent; ’sympathizers’ here are those respondents who said ’Yes’ to the question ’Do you participate in any RSS or VHP activities/programmes?

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