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Analysis: Loss for Cong as third parties emerge

D P Satish, | dp_satish

Updated: May 13, 2011, 11:55 AM IST
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Analysis: Loss for Cong as third parties emerge
Congress is the biggest loser in this election. Number 13 has proved bad for the party!

New Delhi: Congress is the biggest loser in this election. Number 13 has proved bad for the party!

Two women will be controlling the national politics from two British built cities on the East Coast. Mamatha Banerjee from Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) and J Jayalalithaa from Chennai (formerly Madras). Both have got a massive mandate. Jaya is tried and tested. Mamatha is not tested in the matters of state administration.

The victory in Kerala is actually a defeat for the Congress. For the first time Kerala is going to have a very strong opposition. The UDF alliance is not a foolproof alliance.
The massive victory in Assam is the only solace for the Congress. But, some argue that the credit should go to chief minister Tarun Gogoi, who led the party to a third straight victory, very uncommon for a Congress chief minister these days. The poll results from Puducherry have no significance for the national politics.

The bypoll result from the South of India is also shocking for the Congress. The late Andhra Pradesh chief minister Dr. YSR Reddy's rebel son Y S Jaganmohan Reddy has won by a record margin in Kadapa. His mother Y S Vijayalakshmi has also won by a record margin. It is now seen as the beginning of the end of Congress raj in Andhra Pradesh.

The ruling BJP has continued its victory march in Karnataka by winning all three Assembly seats, which went to bypolls on April 8.

Mamatha's victory was long expected. But the margin is really amazing. She has virtually decimated the Left front. She does not even need the support of her ally Congress to form the government at the Writers Building in Kolkata. But, Congress needs her to stay in power in Delhi. Mamatha will become more assertive and the Congress will be weakened further at the Centre.

Some in the Congress may secretly relish the decimation of DMK in Tamil Nadu. But, the reality speaks of a different situation. It is true that the DMK will have to stay with Congress to save itself from political extinction. Happy situation for the Congress. But, the Congress has lost its base in Tamil Nadu by winning just a few seats. Rahul Gandhi's so called charisma or magic has failed to impress voters in Tamil Nadu. Nobody knows what happened to his 14 Lakh paid members of the youth congress in Tamil Nadu?

Somebody has just joked that Amma of Tamil Nadu has won and Amma of India has lost badly!

Jayalalithaa may eventually force Congress to dump DMK and take her support.

Victory in Kerala is not convincing. The 87 year old Achuthanandan led LDF really gave a tough fight. Congress' dependence on allies like Muslim League will increase.
They will surely extract their pound of flesh in return. A minor change in the figures of alliance partners might bring the entire UDF coalition down. Just pulling ahead won't help Congress in God's own country.

We must admit that the victory in Assam is massive and impressive. Poll pundits were expecting a very difficult victory for Tarun Gogoi. But, he has managed to deliver a body blow to faction ridden AGP and not so strong BJP. His development initiatives and peace talks with insurgent ULFA have paid handsomely.

The results have made two national parties Congress and BJP irrelevant. The emergence of third parties is the last thing they want.

Will it be the repeat of 1996 in 2014?

First Published: May 13, 2011, 11:55 AM IST
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