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ICC World Cup 2019: Qualification Scenarios Open Up After Sri Lanka's Shock Win Over England

Nikhil Narain |June 23, 2019, 1:03 PM IST
ICC World Cup 2019: Qualification Scenarios Open Up After Sri Lanka's Shock Win Over England

Sri Lanka has done the 2019 ICC World Cup a huge favour. Not only did they effect the biggest upset of the tournament with their 20-run win over England at Leeds on the 21st of June, Friday, but also threw open a competition which seemed to be becoming too predictable just after the half-way stage.

Afghanistan and West Indies came agonizing close to upsetting two heavyweights in India and New Zealand on Saturday, 22nd of June – this would have made the race for the semi-finals even more interesting - but it was not to be.

As things stand, all teams have at least played 5 matches in the tournament.

There have been four upsets so far. The story is two losses for England and two wins for Bangladesh. If we rank them in descending order of magnitude then these would be: Sri Lanka beat England at Leeds, Pakistan beat England at Trent Bridge, Bangladesh beat South Africa at The Oval and Bangladesh beat West Indies at Taunton.

What does this mean for the tournament?

Where do all the 10 teams stand in the competition with respect to qualifying for the semi-finals? Who are the favourites? Who can cause a surprise?

Let us have a look at the most realistic scenarios.

The Three Likely Semi-Finalists

New Zealand are perched at the top with 5 wins from 6 matches. Along with India, they are the only team to not lose even a single match, thus far, in the tournament.

New Zealand were lucky with the schedule – they had an easy first-half draw and made the most of it – with wins over Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and South Africa. Their toughest match in the first half – against India – was washed out.

With a win over the West Indies, New Zealand are sitting pretty at the top with 11 points. Another win and they would have all but guaranteed a semi-final berth. Matches against Australia and England will not be easy though and New Zealand have an unfavourable head to head against Pakistan in World Cup cricket (2-6) but should get the better of a demoralised and weak Pakistani unit this time around.

Australia are second-placed with 5 wins from 6 matches. Their only defeat came against India at The Oval. One more win should guarantee a semi-final berth for them. Even if they lose to England and New Zealand, they should beat a disoriented South Africa. However, with no real pressure on the Proteas as in all likelihood they would be ousted from a potential knockout chance before the clash, they could just go all out and play attacking cricket – Australia should be wary of that.

Australia

Making the semi-finals will be a huge achievement for Australia – who had their worst year (in terms of win-loss ratio) in 2018.

India got a real scare from Afghanistan but held their nerve to remain unbeaten in this World Cup. With 4 wins from 5 matches (and one washout), India are a couple of wins away from securing a semi-final spot.

They had an excellent start to their World Cup campaign beating three tough sides in South Africa, Australia and Pakistan. With comparatively easier matches against Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and West Indies still scheduled, India should comfortably muster 15 points and sail through the semi-finals (even if they lose to England).

England – From Favourites to Possibility of Non-Qualification

England’s two shock defeats to Pakistan and Sri Lanka have suddenly, to use a cliché, set the cat amongst the pigeons. England have 4 wins from 6 matches but have their task cut out in the three remaining matches – against the top 3 teams of the tournament – India, Australia and New Zealand. England haven’t had the best of records against these sides in World Cup encounters having beaten one of these three sides last in 1992!

If England lose all three, they remain on 8 points. In such a scenario, the home team faces a threat of being eliminated before reaching the semis as there is a very definite chance that one of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or Pakistan may just leave them behind and secure the number 4 position.

root malinga

If England win one of these matches, they are still not guaranteed of a place in the semi-finals though their probability of going through increases significantly. In such a scenario England end with 10 points and only face a realistic potential threat from Sri Lanka who, if they win all their remaining three matches could pip them for the number 4 position by ending with 12 points.

The positive for England, though, is their net run rate – at 1.457 it is the best in the tournament. So should a case arise where they find themselves tied on the same number of points with other teams, their net run rate should see England through.

The Two Dark Horses

Sri Lanka have had a mixed bag so far in the tournament. After being thrashed by New Zealand and beaten comprehensively by Australia and the weather playing spoilsport in two matches where they would have fancied their chances – against Pakistan and Bangladesh, they came back in fine style and defended a moderate total against hosts England.

They are now positioned at number 5 with 6 points from as many matches. They have three matches remaining – against South Africa, West Indies and India.

Shakib

They have a realistic chance of beating the first two which would ensure they end with 10 points. They would then hope that England lose all their remaining matches and Bangladesh do not win more than two. In such a case, Sri Lanka will qualify in the fourth position unless Pakistan wins all their remaining 4 matches, the probability of which is extremely low.

Bangladesh have 2 wins from 6 matches – against South Africa and West Indies. Their batting, led by Shakib-Al-Hasan, has been a revelation. They would fancy their chances against Afghanistan and Pakistan but it will be their clash against India which could potentially decide their fate. If they win all their remaining matches, Bangladesh will end with 11 points and then hope that Sri Lanka do not win all their matches and England win not more than one.

The Bottom Four

West Indies would have had their heart and soul broken after their loss to New Zealand at Manchester. They have won just one solitary match – against Pakistan. They have just 3 points from 6 matches – this includes four losses and one washout.

To have any realistic chance of making it to the knockouts, West Indies need to win all their remaining 3 matches which will take them to 9 points – this will be a tough challenge as one of their clashes is against India.

West Indies would then hope that England lose all their matches, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka win not more than one and Pakistan wins not more than two.

However, this is a highly unlikely scenario.

South Africa find themselves languishing at number 8 in the points table. With 4 losses from 6 matches, including the loss to Bangladesh, they find themselves facing a humiliating elimination from the World Cup. If they redeem themselves and do find a way to beat Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia (the last highly improbable), they can, at maximum, end with 9 points which will in all likelihood not be enough to secure a semi-final berth as they also have a very poor and negative net run rate of -0.193.

Source: AFP Source: AFP

One highly unlikely scenario for South Africa to qualify though is this:

South Africa win all their remaining matches against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia &

England lose all their matches to India, New Zealand and Australia &

Bangladesh lose two of their remaining matches against Afghanistan, India and Pakistan &

Sri Lanka lose to either West Indies or India &

West Indies lose to India (even if they beat Sri Lanka and Afghanistan)

The chances of the above playing out are highly improbable.

Pakistan have lost three of their five matches in the tournament. Their only win was a stunning victory over England. Pakistan still has an outside chance but need to win all their remaining four matches to have any hope of making it through to the knockout stage. They may fancy their chances against Afghanistan but it will not be easy against New Zealand, a highly competitive and threatening Bangladesh and a wounded South Africa.

If they do manage to win all four matches they will end with 11 points and then hope that England do not win more than one and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka lose at least one match.

In such a scenario, Pakistan can still make it to the semi-finals.

If Pakistan win three of their four matches and end with 9 points they have a very miniscule chance of making the knockouts as their net run rate of -1.933 is the lowest in the tournament – even lower than Afghanistan’s!

Afghanistan have lost 6 out of 6 and have no chance of making it to the knockouts.

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Cricket World Cup Points Table

Pos Team P W L T/NR PTS NRR
1
IND
9 7 1 1 15 +0.80
2
AUS
9 7 2 0 14 +0.86
3
ENG
9 6 3 0 12 +1.15
4
NZ
9 5 3 1 11 +0.17
5
PAK
9 5 3 1 11 -0.43
6
SL
9 3 4 2 8 -0.91
7
SA
9 3 5 1 7 -0.03
8
BAN
9 3 5 1 7 -0.41
9
WI
9 2 6 1 5 -0.22
10
AFG
9 0 9 0 0 -1.32

Team Rankings

Rank Team Points Rating
1 India 3631 113
2 New Zealand 2547 111
3 South Africa 2917 108
4 England 3663 105
5 Australia 2640 98
see more
Rank Team Points Rating
1 England 6420 123
2 India 6807 122
3 New Zealand 4763 113
4 Australia 5470 112
5 South Africa 5193 110
see more
Rank Team Points Rating
1 Pakistan 7365 283
2 England 4253 266
3 South Africa 4196 262
4 Australia 5471 261
5 India 7273 260
see more