Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the semi-finals of the 2019 World Cup went from realistic to highly improbable as England beat New Zealand by 119 runs at Chester-le-Street on Wednesday, 3rd July.
Pakistan can mathematically still qualify for the semi-finals if they beat Bangladesh on Friday, the 5th of July at Lord’s in London by some ridiculously huge margin but the probability of this happening is next to impossible.
The first hurdle for Pakistan will be the toss – win the toss and bat first. Chasing is not an option for Pakistan as then the net run rate differential margin with New Zealand is impossible to achieve batting second.
Then, if Pakistan score 450 they need to dismiss Bangladesh for maximum 129, ie a win margin of at least 321 runs.
If they score 400 dismiss Bangladesh for a maximum of 84 – ie a win margin of at least 316 runs.
If they score 350 dismiss Bangladesh for a maximum of 38 – ie a win margin of at least 312 runs.
Just for perspective the biggest margin of victory in ODI cricket history is 290 runs – New Zealand scored 402 against Ireland in Aberdeen in 2008 and dismissed them for 112.
Thus, Pakistan to qualify will need to beat Bangladesh by a record margin.
Pakistan are currently on 9 points from 8 matches with 4 wins, 3 losses and one washout. Their current net run rate sits at -0.792 while New Zealand are at 0.175.
They have made a remarkable comeback in the tournament after a poor start to their campaign. There has been a fascinating similarity in their journey to the knockouts in the 1992 World Cup and their remarkable fightback in the 2019 World Cup.
Pakistan lost three of their first five matches before registering three consecutive wins over South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan.
Can Pakistan do the impossible at Lord’s on Friday?