A CNBC-TV18 poll sees inflation for the week-ended on March 14 at 0.09 per cent — still in positive terrain — compared with 0.44 per cent the week earlier.
Last week, the inflation number for the March 7 week, at 0.44 per cent, saw a drastic fall from the week before, which led to experts predicting a fall below the 0 per cent level in the near future.
Following is a verbatim transcript of Latha Venkatesh’s comments on CNBC-TV18
Could deflationary concerns set in now?
We are far from deflationary concerns and we should firmly put that idea behind us. The Year on Year (YoY) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is falling and may look negative in a week or two, which is far from deflation.
We still have Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the index that all over the world governments follow running at double-digits for the last available month that is January.
The February numbers which have come only for rural areas are also at very high level – nearly 10 per cent, so we should not talk of deflationary fears.
The important point is that YoY inflation number has now become meaningless for policy concerns, and that is why you will not see the markets reacting to this number at all.
It may be 0.09 per cent, it maybe 0.04 per cent or 0.13 per cent – it doesn’t matter inflation is flat and it will be negative.
The bond market will still not react because it is Rs 12,000 crore bond sales by the government, there is so much of bond supply that the excess supply is making the prices fall.
There is very little appetite and we are going to see yield climbing. Thus, yield will go on rising and bond prices falling and the inflation number will be shrugged off by the market.
Last week, the inflation number for the March 7 week, at 0.44 per cent, saw a drastic fall from the week before, which led to experts predicting a fall below the 0 per cent level in the near future.
Following is a verbatim transcript of Latha Venkatesh’s comments on CNBC-TV18
Could deflationary concerns set in now?
We are far from deflationary concerns and we should firmly put that idea behind us. The Year on Year (YoY) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is falling and may look negative in a week or two, which is far from deflation.
We still have Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the index that all over the world governments follow running at double-digits for the last available month that is January.
The February numbers which have come only for rural areas are also at very high level – nearly 10 per cent, so we should not talk of deflationary fears.
The important point is that YoY inflation number has now become meaningless for policy concerns, and that is why you will not see the markets reacting to this number at all.
It may be 0.09 per cent, it maybe 0.04 per cent or 0.13 per cent – it doesn’t matter inflation is flat and it will be negative.
The bond market will still not react because it is Rs 12,000 crore bond sales by the government, there is so much of bond supply that the excess supply is making the prices fall.
There is very little appetite and we are going to see yield climbing. Thus, yield will go on rising and bond prices falling and the inflation number will be shrugged off by the market.
| PM | PERIOD | INFLATION | ||
Avg | Highest | Lowest | ||
| Indira Gandhi | Apr 1971-May 1975 | 15% | 34.7% | 0.5% |
| Indira Gandhi | June 1975 – Mar 1977 | -4% | 9.1% | -11.3% |
| Morarji Desai | Mar 1977 – July 1979 | 5% | 10% | 1.2% |
| Charan Singh | July 1979 – Jan 1980 | 9% | 11.7% | 7% |
| Indira Gandhi | Jan 1980 – Oct 1984 | 11% | 14.4% | 6.1% |
| Rajiv Gandhi | Oct 1984 – Dec 1989 | 8% | 10.4% | 4.3% |
| VP Singh | Dec 1989 – Nov 1980 | 8% | 12.5% | 5.4% |
| Chandra Shekhar | Nov 1990 – June 1991 | 14% | 16.1% | 12.1% |
| PV Narsimha Rao | June 1991 – May 1996 | 10% | 15.7% | 4.5% |
| AB Vajpayee | May 1996 – June 1996 | 9% | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| HD Deve Gowda | June 1996 – Apr 1997 | 9% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| IK Gujral | Apr 1997 - Mar 1998 | 7% | 9.7% | 4.7% |
| AB Vajpayee | Mar 1998 – May 2004 | 5% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Manmohan Singh | May 2004 – Jan 2009 | 6% | 10.4% | 2.8% |
