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Indian Economy Will Overtake Japan to be No.3 by 2030: Report

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (L) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (L) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The improved performance would be a big boost for the Narendra Modi government as it comes amid a debate over its economic record versus that of the previous Manmohan Singh administration after back-series data released recently showed that the GDP growth rate had crossed 10 per cent mark during UPA rule.

Fresh off its climb to the sixth spot in the world as of 2017, India’s economy is forecast to take the third spot by 2030, according to a report by HSBC Holdings Plc shared with Bloomberg.

The South Asian giant was seen as “among the most striking” gainers in the bank’s long-term rankings, leap-frogging Germany and Japan largely on account of the economy’s rapid growth and a rising working-age population that’s the envy of an aging developed world.

China is set to edge out the US as they retain the top two spots in 2030 at USD 26 trillion and USD 25.2 trillion, respectively, with India taking the third spot at USD 5.9 trillion, according to HSBC estimates.

The economy grew at a rate of 8.2 per cent during the period from April to June, topping the pace of the previous quarter and beating analyst expectations. This is the highest growth in over two years and strongest since the first quarter of 2016.

The improved performance would be a big boost for the Narendra Modi government as it comes amid a debate over its economic record versus that of the previous Manmohan Singh administration after back-series data released recently showed that the GDP growth rate had crossed 10 per cent mark during UPA rule.

The Indian government changed the base year for GDP calculation from 2004-05 to 2011-12, a move that had generated a lot of controversy.

The results are also much better than projections by economists, who had pegged the first quarter growth to be in the 7.5 to 7.6 per cent range. This is the second straight quarter that GDP rate has beaten expectations. ​

India had surpassed China's growth of 6.8 percent in the January to March quarter with a rate of 7.7 per cent. The economy had growth of 5.6 per cent in April-June quarter of 2017.

With the 8.2 per cent rate, India would retain its status of the world's fastest growing economy as China had reported GDP growth of 6.8 per cent for the quarter ending June.

Sectors that registered a growth of over 7 per cent include manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, construction and public administration, defence and other services.