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Why vote on account won't move market needle

Why vote on account won't move market needle

There are no major expectations from the vote on account this time which could likely result in a disappointment for market.

The big cue investors will watch out for on Monday is the vote on account, though many market experts believe that it is likely to be a non-event for the stock market, reports CNBC-TV18.

Here's why brokerages sees it as a non-event:

ICICI Securities: There are no major expectations from the vote on account this time which could likely result in a disappointment for market.

Standard Chartered: The non-tax revenue collections have been positive surprise this time and it has raised the chances of the government meeting 4.8 percent fiscal deficit target. Standard Chartered is working with the caveat that the finance minister could even surprise the markets positively by achieving a number lower than that. Despite the slippages seen this time in the tax revenue collection, it sees no threat to the government meeting this particular target. In fact, for FY15, it is building a number close to about 15 percent. This time non-tax revenues including the divestment are likely to surprise the markets on the upside. The spectrum auction inflows have been fairly encouraging this time. It is building in a number of about Rs 40,000 crore.

Also, dividend flows which have come in from the public sector undertakings (PSUs) this time have been higher courtesy their Rs 19,000 crore special dividend from Coal India . Apart from that, for FY15, it has a fiscal deficit target of about 4.2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). The immediate focus for Q1 FY15 will be government's borrowing plan. The broking firm estimates a total figure of about Rs 5.8-6 lakh crore. Also, it expects the government to end FY14 with a cash surplus of about Rs 1 lakh crore despite cancellation of one auction worth Rs 15,000 crore.

Kotak: VoA this time is likely to be a non-event. It sees the government attaining 5.8 percent fiscal deficit target. The government is likely to aim for 4.2 percent target for the next financial year, but it sees some problems for the government in achieving that. It sees little relief on the expenditure side this time primarily because of four reasons. There will be a high carry forward of payments primarily subsidies, which will be pertaining to FY14. The continuation of welfare schemes won't provide a major relief this time. The implementation of a Food Security Act could be a fair bit of a dampener. The likely increase in the fertiliser subsidy post gas price hike, which will be implemented from April 1 is an important caveat to see things on the expenditure front.

The broking firm does not expect a sharp upturn in gross tax given the modest recovery. Also, it sees a very limited scope for widening the tax net. It is expecting tax revenues to grow by just about 13 percent for FY14 versus the estimated increase of about 19 percent.

first published:February 15, 2014, 20:51 IST