Mumbai: The markets seem to have given a reversal this week as they closed above last week's lows and this will lead to a strong opening on Monday on the back of strong rallies on Thursday and Friday this week, believe experts.
While 10,200 is a crucial level to watch out for on the Sensex, for Nifty it would be 2,916 and if these levels were broken then the Sensex would touch 11,000 levels in the short-term.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) inflows in the emerging markets, hike in interest rates, inflation and an unexpected spike in crude oil prices along with delay in the monsoon on the Indian sub-continent are some of the factors that will influence the course of the markets going ahead, experts feel.
Sumeet Rohra, Antique Stock Broking
We have had a fantastic recovery from lower levels
I feel that we have had a fantastic recovery from lower levels and the level to watch out on the Nifty now would be 2,916. On the Sensex one must closely watch 10,200.
Though we are very much back on track but we are dependent on global market cues as of now. The reason is there is too much volatility in global equity and commodity markets.
This is the initial phase of the base-building process
This is the initial phase of the base-building process and hence markets would tend to be a little volatile. However, definitely, the market trend is moving up.
The markets have formed a bottom for sure. The markets are poised to go to much higher levels than what they are today. But due to the kind of market fall that we all have seen there will be some kind of choppiness.
10,200 is a crucial level now
For a strong improvement in sentiment and the confidence of the traders and investors to come back we need a strong consolidation.
9,500-9,600 could be the downside and if the Sensex crosses 10,200 then it could easily touch 11,000 levels. I’d say that 10,200 are a crucial level now.
Monsoons will play a vital role in deciding the course of the markets
At this point in time, markets are going to look at global cues. Monsoons will also play a vital role in deciding the course of the markets in such a scenario.
FII inflows in emerging markets and particularly India would be keenly watched too. PAGE_BREAK
Crude oil below $70 is some kind of a small positive
Crude oil below $70 is some kind of a small positive. Markets are prepared to absorb high crude oil prices till $74. However, if they spike up above that then it will be a cause of concern.
Markets have given a reversal this week
Markets have given a reversal this week as it has broken last week’s low. The Sensex has closed above last week’s close and that is a very positive signal.
The medium to long-term view remains very bullish. Markets should scale new highs by the end of December or early next year.
Sandeep Wagle, Angel Stock Broking
The opening on Monday should be strong
The opening next week on Monday should be strong. However, there is a strong likelihood of selling coming in at higher levels at around 2,960-3,000 levels on the Nifty. For the Sensex, some amount of supply might come in at around 10,200-10,400 levels.
Sensex might trade in the 9300-9500 range
However, we have to be careful if the market opens up stronger on third straight day on Monday.
However, if they open and continue to remain negative then they might go back and trade in the 9300-9500 range.
Crude above USD 75 will be a matter of concern for global economies
Main factors influencing the course of the markets next week would be the overseas markets, the overall sentiment, and volatility on the London metal Exchange and crude oil prices, only if it spikes up in a big way.
Crude above $75 will be a matter of concern for global economies, including India, leading to high inflation and higher interest rates.
S P Tulsian, Investment advisor
Markets should stabilize
Markets should stabilize barring the international factors, which are again not likely to be adverse.
The poison is getting out of the system
We had problems regarding over leveraging positions. The poison is getting out of the system because the problem was not that much from FIIs and mutual fund. There is some selling pressure in mid caps.
Interest rate hike, FII outflow will be a concern for emerging markets
Any interest rate hike and FII outflow will be a concern for any emerging market.
By Prasanna Zore and Piyu Sen