O[q]ptimism over COVID-19 vaccine and hopes of a fresh stimulus in the US may drive markets next week, with investors continuing to monitor global events and situation around coronavirus for further movement, analysts said.
The benchmark index Sensex rose by more than 2 per cent last week to scale the 45,000 level for the first time after the RBI left the policy rates unchanged but maintained its accommodative stance and revised upwards the growth forecast for this fiscal. The 30-share index touched a lifetime peak of 45,148.28 on Friday before settling at 45,079.55 — its all-time closing high. The broader NSE Nifty touched a new high of 13,280.05 during the session, before finishing at a record closing level of 13,258.55.
During the holiday-truncated week, the Sensex rallied 929.83 points or 2.10 per cent, while the Nifty jumped 289.60 points or 2.23 per cent. Expectations of a fresh stimulus in the US and rollout of coronavirus vaccine have driven markets across the globe to near record levels, analysts said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week said a COVID-19 vaccine may be ready in a few weeks as he noted that experts believe the wait for it will not be long, and asserted that the vaccination drive in India will begin as soon as scientists give the nod. "Investors to keep a close eye on coronavirus situation and vaccine coupled with development on economic activity," said Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director, Choice Broking. "With all major events behind us, we feel global cues would dictate market trend ahead. Besides, news related to COVID vaccine will also be in focus," Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services commented that further updates on vaccine developments and revised discussions regarding US stimulus can inject more optimism into the global markets. According to Union health ministry data, India's total COVID-19 active caseload dropped to 4,09,689 on Saturday, the lowest in 136 days. The ministry said that for the past eight days, the daily new recoveries recorded in the country have been more than the daily cases. Markets would also be waiting for industrial production and inflation data, to be announced post market hours on Friday.
Sentiment in the market will also be guided by other major market movers like trend in the rupee, Brent crude and foreign capital flows.