Tata Motors will announce its March quarter earnings on May 20 after market hours. The stock was trading at Rs 188, up 6.3%, at 2:15pm on Monday, tracking gains in the broader markets. But the real test for traders in the stock will start on Tuesday when the market rally settles. Most analysts expect Tata Motors to post a weak set of numbers for the fourth quarter (Q4). Here are the details on what brokerage houses expect out of Tata Motors Q4 results:
Motilal Oswal: Motilal Oswal estimates a 1.6% decline in Tata Motors consolidated revenue compared with a year ago. The brokerage firm expects adjusted profit after tax (PAT) to be at Rs 440 crore, as Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) margin is seen contracting 180 basis points to 10.1% compared with a year ago. Motilal Oswal also expects JLR’s volume to decline by 11.6% year-on-year due to slow demand and deferment of purchases in China. JLR’s Ebitda margin may also contract 380 basis points y-o-y to 9.7%, it added.
Kotak Institutional Equities: Kotak expects Tata Motors’ consolidated revenue to fall 11.3% y-o-y to Rs 80,936.5 crore due to decline in volume and marginal decline in average selling price. The brokerage expects the auto maker to report a consolidated profit of Rs 359.1 crore, down 83.1% from the year-ago quarter. Ebitda may come in at Rs 7,788.1, down 28.5% y-o-y, while the Ebitda margin is seen at 9.6%, down 232 bps from the year-ago period.
Reliance Securities: Reliance Securities expects Tata Motors consolidated revenue to dip 1.8% to Rs 89,643 crore. In terms of profit, it expects a 58% drop to Rs 1,198.3 crore compared with a year ago. According to the brokerage firm, standalone volume is expected to fall 6% y-o-y, while Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) volume is expected to decline 12%. Ebitda in the March quarter is expected at Rs 8,449 crore, while Ebitda margin is seen at 9.5%, down 245 basis points y-o-y, said Reliance Securities.
Edelweiss: Edelweiss expects Tata Motors to report 8% y-o-y drop in consolidated revenue growth at Rs 84,197.3 crore, primarily due to weakness in India business, while Ebitda may fall 18.1% to Rs 8,925.3 crore. “We expect consolidated operating margins to improve sequentially by 250 bps to 10.4%, due to an improvement in JLR’s businesses (lower employee cost being one of them),” analysts at Edelweiss said.
CNBC-TV18 Poll: According to a CNBC-TV18 Poll, Tata Motors consolidated revenue is likely to fall 5.2% y-o-y to Rs 86,491 crore. Ebitda may slip 16% to Rs 9,148 crore against Rs 10,894 crore a year ago. JLR revenue may come lower by 5.7% at 7,117 million pounds against 7,555 million pound in the same quarter last year, while Ebitda may slip 35% at 663 million pound against 1,021 million pound, according to the poll. Tata Motors may report loss of 1 million pound against PAT of 400 million pound.