As India prepares to emerge from the lockdown imposed to check the spread of Covid-19, a recent modeling by IIT Delhi researchers shows that the virus is spreading faster in seven states than the national rate.
In the ascending order, the states are Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Gujarat, the Indian Express reported. These seven states make up two-thirds of the total cases in the country.
The data which was made available on April 23 was developed by PRACRITI, a new dashboard by IIT Delhi. The dashboard shows the transmission rate in 19 states and 100 districts which make up for 60 per cent of the infections in India.
The data shows that Gujarat has the highest infection rate in the country (R0) at 3.3. R0 is the average number of individuals that a sick person goes on to infect in a group that does not have immunity. Thus, each infected individual is transmitting it to 3.3 persons, on an average.
On Friday, the number of coronavirus positive patients in Gujarat rose to 2,815 after 191 new cases were reported in the last 24 hours, officials said.
The portal shows that only 28 out of 100 districts have a transmission rate that is higher than the national average of 1.8. These districts are spread across nine states – Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Punjab, the newspaper reported.
Kerala, Haryana, and Tamil Nadu are witnessing a dip in the outbreak and the rate of transmission is less than one. Tamil Nadu, however, still shows a huge difference at the district level, unlike Haryana and Kerala. Despite the state’s overall R0 being low at 0.93, six districts have a higher transmission rate.
Take for instance Tenkasi in Tamil Nadu which has a transmission rate of 6.27, well above the state and the national average. Notably, there are 28 districts in India that have a transmission rate higher than that of their state.
Thirty eight districts that have a caseload of above 20 have witnessed an inconsistent spike in the number of infections such that no transmission rate can be worked out, the researchers said. They are mostly in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The death toll due to Covid-19 rose to 775 and the number of cases climbed to 24,506 in the country on Saturday, according to the Union Health Ministry.
A total of 52 deaths were reported since Friday evening – 18 from Maharashtra, 15 from Gujarat, nine from Madhya Pradesh, three each from Delhi and West Bengal, two from Tamil Nadu, and one each from Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. The death toll reached 25 in Uttar Pradesh, 22 in Tamil Nadu while Karnataka and West Bengal have reported 18 deaths each.