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How India Reached the Grim Milestone of 3 Crore Covid Cases

Representational pic.

Representational pic.

The first novel coronavirus patient was recorded in India on January 30, 2020, and the country passed 3 crore cases after 510 days.

India on Tuesday went past the 3-crore mark of Covid cases, a figure only crossed by the United States before. The first novel coronavirus patient was recorded in India on January 30, 2020, and the country passed 3 crore cases after 510 days. The US crossed the mark in 430 days with its first confirmed case identified on January 20, 2020.

The second Covid wave in India is currently witnessing a downward trend with a consistent decline in active caseload burden that stands at 6,62,521 and a cumulative toll of 3,89,302 fatalities due to the disease.

The last 50 lakh cases have come in 36 days, with on average 1.39 lakh cases daily, a significant decline from the second wave peak in April and May that saw on average 3.57 lakh cases a day. The average daily death figures have also come down to 3,100 from 4,000 recorded earlier.

The daily new cases figure that had touched a global peak of 4.14 lakh in May is seeing a steady drop with the current seven-day rolling average down to 49,250 confirmed cases. The highest seven-day rolling average of 3,91,232 confirmed cases was registered on May 8, 2021. Covid fatalities that soared to a rolling seven-day average of 4,190 deaths on May 23 have reduced to 1,583 deaths on Wednesday.

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A downward trend can also be seen in the number of days taken to reach the subsequent 50 lakh cases.

En route

2.5 crore cases: India crossed the 2.5-crore mark of the confirmed cases on May 17, or 14 days after May 3, when its cumulative caseload burden had increased to over 2 crore cases. On average, each day recorded over 3.57 lakh new Covid cases and 4,000 deaths.

By May 18, India’s cumulative death toll had reached 2,78,719 fatalities with an active caseload burden of 33,53,765 cases. The share of active caseload was 13.29% of the cumulative cases, while the recovery rate had reduced to 85.6%. With 2,63,533 new cases and 4,329 new deaths, the day reminds of the horror the country faced during the disastrous second Covid wave. The rolling seven-day average of daily new confirmed Covid deaths on May 3 was 3,502 fatalities that increased to 4,103 on May 17.

2 crore cases: From 1.5 crore cases, the country crossed 2 crore in 15 days, on May 3, with 3,57,229 new cases and 3,449 new deaths. On average, each day saw 3.37 lakh new Covid cases and 2,900 deaths. The active caseload burden with 34,47,133 cases was 17% of the cumulative caseload burden. The recovery rate further reduced to 81.91% cases with a cumulative death toll of 2,22,408. The rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases and deaths saw a day-by-day increase on all 15 days.

1.5 crore cases: The country registered 1.5 crore cases on April 18, after 121 days of 1 crore cases. During this period, the Covid caseload and fatalities saw a consistent decline with a huge upshot in the recovery figures thanks to the months-long lockdown period the country saw that could successfully break the chain of coronavirus transmission.

During this period, on average, India saw 41,300 cases and 278 deaths daily. The rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases saw an almost consistent decline till February 11. Since February 11, when the rolling seven-day average was 11,144 new confirmed cases, the country started witnessing an increase in the average of daily new cases. The rolling seven-day average of new deaths also saw an almost consistent decline with 89 fatalities on average on February 11 before it went on increasing.

But the active caseload burden remained above 10% with the rate of recovery reduced by 9% to 86%.

1 crore cases: India crossed the grim milestone of registering cumulative 1 crore cases on December 18 last year when the country was in the early days of a downward trend after the first Covid wave. The day saw 25,153 new cases and 347 new fatalities with a cumulative death toll of 1,45,136.

With 94 days to reach from 50 lakh to 1 crore cases, on average, the country registered 53,000 cases and 671 deaths daily. But recovery rate during this period was as high as above 95% with the active caseload burden reduced to just 3% of the cumulative cases. The rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases and deaths saw an almost steady fall day by day during this period.

50 lakh cases: On September 15, 2020, India crossed the 50-lakh figure of confirmed cumulative cases. The first Covid wave was at its peak in September last year. The day saw 90,123 new infections and 1,290 new deaths. The active caseload burden was 19.8% of the total confirmed cases with a cumulative death toll of 82,066.

Though it took 230 days to reach this uninviting mark, the last 25 lakh cases to reach the 50-lakh figure came in just 32 days, or, on average, 78,125 cases, and 1,032 deaths daily.

This is something that reflects in the rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases and deaths. The average graph saw a consistent but slow increase throughout the months of April, May and June last year but increased rapidly in the months of August and September, touching the peak of the first Covid wave on September 16 with a rolling seven-day average of 93,198 cases on September 16, 2020.

The comparison here also clearly shows in the data that the second Covid wave has been much more disastrous than the first. The average of daily cumulative cases and fatality figures was four times higher in the second wave than in the first one.

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first published:June 23, 2021, 20:05 IST