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ICMR Says Study Claiming Covid-19 Peak May Arrive in Mid-November is Misleading

Representative image.

Representative image.

The study had claimed the peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown and it may now arrive around mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds and ventilators.

The Indian Council of Medical Research on Monday said a study, which claimed the peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown and it may now arrive around mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds and ventilators, is "misleading".

"The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR," the body said in a tweet.

The study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by ICMR had earlier said the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure.

In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed.

However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures, it had added.

first published:June 15, 2020, 23:07 IST