The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Thursday that the southwest monsoon over the country will be normal in July and quantitatively will be 94% to 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA). While the rainfall is not expected to be good in the first week, it is likely to significantly recover in the later half of the second week, said the IMD director Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. However, a large geographical area, including the northwest, southern peninsula, and some areas of central and eastern India, may receive below normal rainfall.
This month below normal rain has been predicted over south Kerala, west and north Andhra Pradesh, Konkan and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, parts of northern Gujarat, northern Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, northern Odisha, West Bengal, south Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. It is the first time that the weather bureau is issuing a month-wise rainfall forecast along with the likely rainfall distribution over the entire country.
The Met department will issue the next forecast for the showers during the second half of the season towards the end of July or the beginning of August.
The monsoon started off very strong and the average rainfall exceeded 40% of what’s normal until June 19. But later it started declining. Currently, it is stalled and hasn’t progressed into much of the northwest part of the country. Due to this hiatus, the sowing of the Kharif crop could take a hit in northwest India. July and August are the rainiest months in the monsoon season. The rainfall in July contributes to about 35% of the season’s outpour and is, thus, crucial for agriculture and reservoir replenishment.
Normally, India receives 17.5 cm of rainfall in June, but this year, the country received 18.7 cm of rainfall.
Meanwhile, the northern part of the country, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, are unlikely to get any relief from the scorching heat soon.