The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on May 31, a day earlier than its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. The normal onset date of the monsoon over Kerala is June 1. “This year, the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 31st May with a model error of plus/minus 4 days," the IMD said.
In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. According to the new normal dates of monsoon onset or progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22. As a cyclone is expected to form over the Arabian Sea, the cross-equatorial south westerlies have temporarily strengthened over the Arabian Sea. The cross-equatorial flow is very likely to strengthen and deepen over the Bay of Bengal from May 20 and a sustained rainfall activity is likely over the south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Nicobar Islands from May 21. Hence, the monsoon advance over Andaman and Nicobar Islands is very likely around May 21. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said monsoon is expected to be normal this year.