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New Coronavirus Cases Could Halt in India by May 21 Amid Restrictive Measures: Study

Representative image. (Reuters)

Representative image. (Reuters)

According to the paper -- The End is Near: Corona Stabilizing in Most Indian States -- anti-coronavirus restrictions is an important factor to help stabilise cases in most Indian states by as soon as May 7.

Mumbai: India could halt the growth of coronavirus cases by May 21, suggests a paper by the Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy.

According to the paper -- The End is Near: Corona Stabilizing in Most Indian States -- anti-coronavirus restrictions are an important factor to help stabilise cases in most Indian states by as soon as May 7.

Economists and the authors of the study, Neeraj Hatekar and Pallavi Belhekar, meditated on Covid-19 infection patterns in various countries where new infections are not coming up, states a report by the Economic Times.

They took note of the way in which microorganisms multiply, and combined with other data, concluded in their study that spread of coronavirus could be stopped in entire India by May 21.

So what are the various measures that could aid this goal? The paper states that the large-scale movement of migrants could neutralise the effects of lockdown.

Hatekar told ET that the growth of Covid-19 cases was not exponential, but that the pace would initially increase and subsequently flatten post reaching its carrying capacity.

An S-shaped curve is illuminated by the study, in which countries stop reporting new cases, akin to how colonies of microorganisms develop in a restricted environment.

The method of logistic distribution is used in the paper. It demonstrates the development of a settlement of microorganisms in a restricted situation.

The carrying capacity is estimated by the greatest number of individuals at which a colony of microorganisms will stop developing.

Accordingly, Behelkar tells ET that the initial stage is when the number of cases increases gradually, after which growth increases, which signifies the exponential phase.

He states that the flat portion is attained when states reach their carrying capacity and no new infections come up.

The study calculates the number of infections that a state could end up with by May 21. Maharashtra's coronavirus cases could reach 24,222 cases by then, it predicts. On Thursday, the state reported a total of 9,915 Covid-19 cases.

Gujarat, which had 4,000+ cases on Thursday, may hit 4,833 cases by May 7, the report states.

However, the expected end dates and carrying capacities conveyed by the study are subject to daily changing data.

first published:May 01, 2020, 11:56 IST