Epidemiologists working at the state-run Dr MGR Medical University have estimated that Chennai may see 1.5 lakh Covid-19 cases and around 1,600 fatalities by the second week of July, if the current rate of growth holds.
The university manages the medical colleges in Tamil Nadu and its estimations have been employed by the government for Covid-19 preparedness, The Indian Express reported.
The university started its projections from April 18 and presented it to the government in the first week of May.
The professor and head of the department of epidemiology at the Dr MGR Medical University, Dr G Srinivas told IE that the number of infections in the city would reach 1.5 lakh by July 15 and added that it would at its maximum in mid-October.
According to the predictions of his team, Tamil Nadu may see 1.3 lakh novel coronavirus cases and 769 fatalities by June 30.
On Thursday, Tamil Nadu reported its highest single-day spike of 1,384 cases to take its tally to 27,256, while its death toll rose to 220.
“The disease continues to spread. However, the government is currently well-prepared to handle the number of cases with enough number of beds, isolation facilities, ICUs and such crucial infrastructure,” Srinivas told The Indian Express.
Notably, in the second week of April, the university had estimated that the novel coronavirus cases would rise from 3,097 to 5,442 in the initial 10 days of May. The actual figures show that cases increased from 2,526 to 7,204 between May 1 and 10. Meanwhile, the estimation of Covid-19 deaths for May 10 was 38 and the figure stood at 47.
The university’s estimations for the capital city were precise. Their mathematical model had predicted 83 deaths on May 25, which became a reality. Their estimation of cases for the same day, 11,119, was just 12 cases less than the actual figures. While the prediction for June 3 stated that there would be 17,738 cases and 156 deaths, the real numbers were at 17,598 and 153 respectively, the report added.