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3rd Wave May Have Already Set In, Likely to Pick Up If Covid Norms Ignored: Top Physicist

FILE PHOTO: People walk at a crowded market in the old quarters of Delhi, India, April 6, 2021. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/File Photo

FILE PHOTO: People walk at a crowded market in the old quarters of Delhi, India, April 6, 2021. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/File Photo

The pattern of new coronavirus infections and deaths is similar to the one in February 2021, the onset of second wave, suggesting a start of the third wave.

The third wave of the coronavirus pandemic might have set in on July 4, according to a Hyderabad-based researcher who has analysed daily data on new infections and deaths over the last 15 months.

According to a Times of India report, Dr Vipin Srivatsava, an eminent physicist and former pro-vice-chancellor, University of Hyderabad, pointed out that the pattern of the new coronavirus cases and deaths since July 4 mirrors the graph of the first week of February 2021, when the second wave started in the country.

One of the metrics analysed by Dr Srivatsava showed the signs of the onset of a new wave, which according to him, might soon pick up if coronavirus protocols such as social distancing, hand sanitising, using of masks, and vaccination are ignored. The wave pattern unraveled after the researcher mapped daily Covid-19 data in the last 460 days.

The metric named, ‘Daily Death Load’ (DDL), was calculated by taking the ratio of the number of coronavirus deaths and new active cases in the same 24-hour period.

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The report quoted Dr Srivatsava as saying, “When I plot this ratio as a function of time, I find that it exhibits wild fluctuations whenever there is a crossover from one scenario to another in the plot for the number of daily Covid deaths.”

He explained that when the number of deaths was very high in May 2021, the DDL fluctuated wildly during a 10-day period between May 6 and May 17. This signalled that a crossover was about to occur, following which the DDL went down and showed small favorable negative and positive values, and also marked a decrease in daily deaths as the second wave peaked.

Since July 4, the DDL seemed to be fluctuating as it did during the onset of the second wave in mid-February, the report said.

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first published:July 12, 2021, 17:42 IST