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Exit Polls: How Predicting Election Results Have Fared in the Past

Election officials check EVMs. (Image: PTI)

Election officials check EVMs. (Image: PTI)

News18 did an analysis of past exit polls and found that it was a mixed bag. Some were close while others missed by a mile.

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Tushar Dhara

Picking election winners before the results are known is a fraught business at best. Now, with counting to the most eagerly anticipated set of polls on March 11, it has become even more perilous. No one seems to have a clue as to which way the electoral wind is blowing and the exit polls, set to come out tomorrow, could point to wildly differing results.

News18 did an analysis of past exit polls and found that it was a mixed bag. Some were close while others missed by a mile.  The tables below show the exit poll results for 5 elections: Delhi 2015, Bihar 2015, General Elections 2014 in UP, UP 2012 and UP 2007.

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None of the exit polls predicted the AAP sweep (67 seats), but India News-Axis came closest.

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The grand alliance of JD(U), RJD and Congress got 178 seats while the BJP and allies got 58 seats. Again, everyone got it wrong.

2014 LOK SABHA ELECTION EXIT POLLS in UP

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Chanakya/News24 was reasonably accurate, predicting 67 seats for the BJP. The party got 71 seats.

UP: 2012 POST POLL SURVEY

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The Samajwadi Party won 224 seats. Headlines Today came the closest by predicting 195-210 seats.


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