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India Seems to be Past its Covid-19 Peak Even as US, Europe Struggle

A health worker in personal protective equipment (PPE) checks her phone during a check up campaign for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mumbai. (Representative image)

A health worker in personal protective equipment (PPE) checks her phone during a check up campaign for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mumbai. (Representative image)

India is the second-most COVID hit country with 7.37 million confirmed cases and 112,161 deaths. The US is the worst affected with over eight million cases and 215,199 deaths so far.

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Santosh Chaubey

According to an analysis by the Finance Ministry, the caseload data from September 17 to September 30 indicates that India may have passed its COVID-19 peak in September. A month after September 16, when India registered the highest number of 97,894 cases on a daily basis, we see a consistent decline in India’s daily caseload while at the same time Americas and Europe continue to suffer.

India is the second-most COVID hit country with 7.37 million confirmed cases and 112,161 deaths. The US is the worst affected with over eight million cases and 215,199 deaths so far. As per the World Health Organisation (WHO) COVID-19 dashboard, Americas have over 18.3 million COVID cases and 599,169 deaths and Europe has over 7.4 million COVID-19 cases and 251,478 deaths.

If the compare data-wise for a month since September 16, India has improved and is in a much better position than not only the US but also Americas and Europe which are registering increased number of COVID cases and deaths now. It was expected last month that India would soon become the largest COVID hit country, crossing the US with daily caseload nearing a 100,000 cases but that doesn’t seems to be a possibility any time soon.

While India has seen a decline of 35 per cent since its peak, Americas have seen an increase of over 16 per cent and Europe, in fact, has seen a surge of over 150 per cent in number of daily cases. This pattern can also seen in the number of deaths as well. From its peak, India has seen a decline of 21 per cent in number of daily deaths while Americas have seen an increase of 24 per cent and Europe, again, has seen a surge of 96 per cent.

(Source: The WHO and the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, India)

The daily cases have seen consistent decline in India since September 16 when India recorded 97,894 cases with a seven day average of 93,199 cases. A total of 63,371 cases were registered on October 15 with seven-day average of 66,331 cases. From near one lakh cases in September, the count has fallen dramatically.

But data obtained from the New York Times shows the US has been seeing an upward trend after witnessing low number of cases in early September. On September 13, it saw 33,343 cases with seven day average of 35,073 cases, and from that day, the country has seen an almost upward trend. On October 15, the US saw 65,151 new cases with a seven day average of 54,373 cases. The weekly trend shows a consistent increase.

India continues to have lowest deaths per million at 80 among major COVID-hit countries, as per the data released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The death rate per million of population of Europe is four times, at 312 and eight times in US, at 666. The data from Johns Hopkins University says India’s case fatality rate is 1.5 per cent, again lowest among the major COVID-hit countries.

From having 1,290 new deaths on September 15, with seven day average of 1,168 cases, the fatality trend in India saw almost consistent decline with 895 deaths on October 15 with seven day average of 810 deaths.

The New York Times data shows a rough month of high and low daily COVID-19 death figures in the US. On September 13, the US saw 399 deaths with a seven day average of 734 deaths, which rapidly increased to 1281 deaths on September 15. On October 15, the US saw 793 deaths with a seven day average of 701 deaths.

And above all the recovery that factually tells us how we are dealing with the pandemic. India’s recovery rate has seen a consistent increase. We have only 804,528 active cases as of today while 87.6 per cent patients have recovered so far while the recovery rate in the US is still only 40 per cent.

India, with a much larger population base than the US, Americas and Europe was once expected to be worst COVID-hit country by many health experts and scientists but so far, we have been in a better position when compared to other major hit countries and WHO regions.

Population of the US is just 25 per cent of India’s population. Americas’ estimated population is around 74 per cent of India’s population and Europe’s population is around 55 per cent of India’ population, yet they have so far suffered more from the COVID-19 pandemic than India.


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