The Bharatiya Janata Party would lose all three of the upcoming Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to the Congress, but the Modi factor would help the party’s fortunes in the Lok Sabha election next year in the three states, a survey conducted by CVOTER and ABP news has predicted.
The survey stated that the Congress would gain a clear majority in all the three states in the elections, by winning 117 out of 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 54 out of 90 in Chhattisgarh and 130 out of 200 in Rajasthan. The BJP, on the other hand, would manage only 106, 33 and 57 seats in the three states respectively, the opinion poll predicted.
Winning the three states would be a major boost for the Congress, which has been reduced to power in just four states, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections as polls in these states are being seen as a semi-final ahead of the grand finale next year.
A good showing here would also help the party negotiate for seats for 2019 with any grand alliance partners from a position of strength.
The survey’s 28,000 respondents showed completely different preferences when it came to voting for a government at the Centre as BJP had higher vote shares in all three states for Lok Sabha elections, according to the poll. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also remains first choice and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi was a distant second for the top post. The three states have 65 Lok Sabha seats among them.
Here’s a break-up of the findings of the survey in the three states:
The ABP-CVOTER survey predicted that Congress would make huge gains and could bag 51 per cent votes as against the BJP’s 37 per cent, giving the Congress 130 seats in the 200-seat Assembly. This is a complete reversal from 2013 when BJP had got 163 seats.
Earlier this year, the Congress had won four out of six assembly by-polls and two parliamentary by-polls in the state. The BJP’s state unit has been marred by factionalisma and infighting and for Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, it will be an uphill battle to reverse the tide.
The Congress, whose fortunes are on the upswing, would face a decision on CM face. According to the survey, senior leader Ashok Gehlot is favoured by 41 per cent people, ahead of Sachin Pilot who 18 per cent people would like to see as CM.
In the Lok Sabha election, it is the BJP that is projected to bag 47 per cent votes while Congress is second with 43 per cent votes. PM Modi is far ahead in popularity as 55 per cent people would like to see him get a second term as against 22 per cent who said they would back Rahul Gandhi.
In MP, where the Shivraj Singh Chouhan is battling anti-incumbency, the Congress has been projected to win 42 per cent votes against 40 per cent votes for the BJP. But it will be good enough to win 117 seats in the 230-seat Assembly, the survey predicted.
In Lok Sabha election, the survey gave BJP 46 per cent votes and Congress 39 per cent votes. In terms of PM faces, 54 per cent of people polled in the state backed PM Modi for a second term while 25 per cent would like to see Rahul Gandhi in the top post.
The survey predicted a closer contest between the Congress and BJP in Chhattisgarh in terms of vote share as it gave 40 per cent votes to Congress and 39 per cent to the BJP. The Congress, however, is still projected to win 54 seats in the 90-seat Assembly.
Voting percentage for Lok Sabha polls follows the same trend as the other two states surveyed as 46 per cent are projected to vote for BJP and 36 per cent for the Congress. Around 56 per cent respondents would like to see Modi as PM again while 21 per cent would give a chance to the Congress chief.