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Karnataka Election Results Live Updates: Trends Show That Pollsters Underestimated JD(S)

By 10 am, two hours after counting began, on Tuesday, the JD (S) had already proved exit polls wrong. While the party had been dubbed ‘Kingmaker’ based on the exit polls, its performance on Tuesday may propel it to power.

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Updated:May 15, 2018, 11:15 AM IST
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Karnataka Election Results Live Updates: Trends Show That Pollsters Underestimated JD(S)
JD(S) State President H D Kumaraswamy and his wife Anitha Kumaraswamy show their inked fingers after casting their votes for the Karnataka Assembly elections in Ramnagar, Karnataka on May 12, 2018. (PTI Photo) (PTI5_12_2018_000132B)
New Delhi: Hours after polling closed in Karnataka, exit poll results started to flood TV screens, with most predicting a hung Assembly. Pundits were divided on which one of BJP or Congress will be the single largest party in the Karnataka election, but they all mostly agreed that neither will get a clear majority. Another aspect on which the polls were unanimous was the performance of the Janata Dal (Secular).

By 10 am, two hours after counting began, on Tuesday, the JD (S) had already proved exit polls wrong. While the party had been dubbed ‘Kingmaker’ based on the exit polls, its performance on Tuesday may propel it to power.

ABP TV had predicted a tally in favour of the BJP with a seat count between 97-109 seats; 97-99 seats for the Congress and between 21 and 30 for the JD(S). India Today’s exit poll has predicted 106-118 seats for Congress; 79-92 seats for BJP; 22-30 for JD(S) and 1-4 seats for the others.

Aaj Tak exit polls were also in the favour of Congress and had given Congress 106 to 118 seats; BJP 72 to 76 seats; JD(S) 25 to 30 seats and others 4 to 8 seats. NDTV's 'Poll of Polls' based on eight exit polls, predicted BJP to be the single largest party with 101 seats, Congress second with 84 seats followed by the Deve Gowda-led JD(S) with 33 seats.

Newsx-CNX, on the other hand, has predicted that BJP could be ahead of the Congress. Its exit poll had given BJP 102 to 106 seats; Congress 72 to 75 seats, JD(S) 35 to 38 seats and Others 3 to 6 seats.

The most liberal of estimates, the Republic TV poll, had given the JD (S) between 32-43 seats. However, by 10 am, the JD (S) had already crossed 46 seats, not too far behind the Congress this year and higher than the BJP’s tally in 2013. In case the Congress, which has severely underperformed in the election with even Chief Minister Siddaramaiah trailing in Chamundeshwari, wants to keep the BJP out of power, a power sharing agreement with the JD (S) may be its best bet.

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| Edited by: Ashutosh Tripathi
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