The level of satisfaction with a state government is highest in Bihar followed by Chhattisgarh. Most BJP/NDA-ruled states are seen as better performing than Congress-ruled states. Delhi and Andhra Pradesh are the only states where there are more people dissatisfied with the state government than satisfied.
Four out of the top five chief ministers with the highest performance ratings, belong to either the BJP or NDA. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has the highest satisfaction ratings among all CMs. Three out of the five chief ministers with the worst performance ratings, belong to the Congress party. Andhra Pradesh CM N Kiran Kumar Reddy has the worst ratings among all CMs, followed by Delhi’s Sheila Dikshit; Among the states going to elections in 2012, the people of Uttarakhand are most satisfied with the performance of their chief minister Ramesh Pokhriyal. For every two persons who are dissatisfied with his performance, there are four who are satisfied. In the case of Mayawati (UP) and Prakash Singh Badal (Punjab), the ratio is not as favourable.
Among the states going to elections in 2012, the sentiment of the people against the incumbent government is quite high. In Uttar Pradesh, over half the respondents want Mayawati’s government out. In 2007 Mulayam Singh’s government was rated more favourably. In neighbouring Uttarakhand too, most respondents are against giving the BJP government another chance. In 2007, the incumbent Congress government had a better popularity than this, even though it lost the election. In Punjab the difference between those wanting the Prakash Singh Badal’s government to continue and not continue is very small. The rejection of the government is not as high as it was for Amarinder Singh’s government in 2007.
When asked to compare the previous Samajwadi Party (SP) government with the present Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) government, more people opted for the SP government. Support for the SP government was high among Muslims and Upper Castes. Lower OBCs were more or less equally divided on this question.
Jagan Mohan Reddy’s decision to quit the Congress has many supporters. The decision of former Andhra Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s son to leave the Congress has the support of nearly half the respondents, whereas only one-third is against it.
Mulayam’s government had better ratings on the question of UP’s development, than Mayawati’s now. In fact, on most key issues of governance, Mayawati’s government fares worse than her predecessor Mulayam Singh Yadav’s government. BSP government’s ratings on issues like controlling corruption, facilities in schools and hospitals and condition of roads are worse than those of the previous SP government.
A massive majority in Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra supports the ‘status quo’ (united Andhra) recommendation of the Srikrishna Commission. In Telangana, while the support for a division of Andhra is strong, it is nowhere close to the strong opposition to it in other parts of the state.
There is a very small difference of two percentage points between those wanting the UPA to continue and those who want it out. The difference was ten percentage points in 2009. The sentiment against the UPA continuing in power is stronger in urban areas and among the upper classes. While in rural areas and among middle, lower and poor classes, the sentiment against the UPA is also fairly strong, but there are still more people among these sections who want the UPA to continue in power, than not continue. In Urban areas and among upper classes, it is the other way round.
While the proportion of those satisfied with UPA government%u2019s performance is more than those dissatisfied, there has been a huge drop in the proportion of those satisfied. In 2009, for every person dissatisfied with the central government%u2019s performance, there were three who were satisfied. Now it is down to one is to one and a half.
When asked to compare the first term of the UPA with the second term, most respondents across all categories said UPA I was better. For every person who feels UPA II is better, there are two who feel UPA I was better. The preference for UPA I is highest among UPA voters, the college educated, urban respondents and the upper class.
Data by: Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai.
Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit’s popularity has dropped considerably since 2008. But this is not the first time her ratings have gone down. They were worse when a similar survey was done in 2007 Satisfaction with Nitish Kumar’s work is even higher than it was when he was re-elected as Bihar Chief Minister, 9 months ago. Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s ratings are as high as they were when he was re-elected in 2008. Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh’s performance ratings are the highest they have ever been. For every one person dissatisfied with Narendra Modi’s performance, there are six who are satisfied. In 2007 this figure was just three. Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik remains almost as popular as he was in 2007. However the proportion of those dissatisfied with his work has also gone up. Approval ratings of Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda have been declining steadily over the years.
Opinion on the Congress party is divided. While many are of the opinion (28%) that the Congress should get a chance to govern UP, there are many others who feel that it is either unfit to rule or should never get a chance to rule (32%). Muslims and OBCs have a more positive view of the Congress.
The sentiment against dividing Andhra Pradesh and carving a separate Telangana state from it, has only increased in regions outside Telangana. Most people in these regions want Andhra Pradesh to stay united, more so compared to 2009. While the sentiment in favour of a separate Telangana state can only be found in the Telangana region and has increased there compared to 2009, it is still not as strong as the overwhelming sentiment against it in the rest of Andhra Pradesh.