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Poll tracker: BJP wave in Jharkhand, Bihar; TMC, BJD lead in WB, Odisha

Jan 20, 2014 09:59 PM IST Politics Politics
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New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is the most preferred choice of the voters for the post of PM in Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha.

Lokniti-IBN national election tracker predicts that BJP is the leading party in Bihar and Jharkhand. In West Bengal and Odisha, the ruling regional parties - the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) - are expected to maintain their lead. The BJP is not gaining much in these two states, though Narendra Modi is ahead of others in the PM race.

According to the poll, the BJP will emerge as the largest party in Bihar if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014. In the neighbouring states of West Bengal and Odisha, the TMC and the BJD are expected to maintain their lead.

In Bihar, with 40 Lok Sabha seats, the main opposition BJP is expected to win 16-24 seats. The ruling Janata Dal (United) is expected to win just 7-13 seats while Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is likely to improve its tally by winning 6-10 seats. The Congress is projected to win 0-4 seats.

The BJP is expected to garner 40 per cent of the votes in Jharkhand which has 14 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, which is a part of the state government in alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is likely to get just 20 per cent votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) are likely to get 8 and 7 per cents of votes respectively.

In Odisha with 21 Lok Sabha seats, Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is expected to maintain its lead by winning 10-16 seats. The main opposition Congress is expected to win 3-9 seats and the BJP is projected to win 0-4 seats.

Mamata Banerjee's TMC is likely to improve its strength by winning 20-28 seats in West Bengal which sends 42 Lok Sabha MPs to Parliament. The CPM-led Left Front is staring at a bleak future. It is projected to win just 7-13 seats while the Congress is expected to win 5-9 seats and the BJP may get 0-2 seats.

In some good news for the Congress, the party is likely to do very well in Assam if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014. The party will, in fact, increase its vote share from 35 per cent in 2009 elections to 47 per cent now as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.

Since the sample size for two other states surveyed - Assam and Jharkhand - is very small, there are no seat projections for the two states.

All seat projections are provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.

Projected seats (January 2014)



Bihar (40)

BJP: 16-24

JD(U): 7-13

RJD: 6-10

Congress: 0-4



Odisha (21)

BJD: 10-16

Congress: 3-9

BJP: 0-4



West Bengal (42)

TMC: 20-28

Left Front: 7-13

Congress: 5-9

BJP: 0-2



Vote share

In Bihar, the Modi wave is clearly helping the BJP and the party is likely to get 39 per cent of the votes if elections are held in January 2014. In 2009, the BJP got just 14 per cent of the votes. The ruling JD(U) is likely to get just 20 per cent votes whereas in 2009, it polled 24 per cent of the votes. The RJD is likely to get 15 per cent, the Congress 11 per cent, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 2 per cent, the AAP 3 per cent and others are likely to get 10 per cent of the votes.

Jharkhand is seeing a Narendra Modi wave with the BJP expected to garner 40 per cent of the votes in the state if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014. The Congress, which in alliance with the JMM, runs the state government, is likely to get just 20 per cent votes in the mineral-rich state.

In Odisha, the BJD is likely to 34 per cent votes. In 2009, it polled 37 per cent votes. The Congress is likely to get 31 per cent votes which were 33 per cent in 2009. The BJP is projected to get 25 per cent votes, a big jump from 17 per cent in 2009. The AAP is expected to get a mere 1 per cent votes and the others are expected to get 10 per cent votes.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee continues to hold the sway. The TMC is projected to get 33 per cent votes whereas in 2009 it was 31. The Left Front is expected to garner 25 per cent votes whereas in 2009, it got a huge 43 per cent votes. The Congress is expected to gain 5 per cent more votes this time. In 2009, the Congress got 14 per cent votes. The BJP's vote is expected to touch 14 per cent from a mere 6 per cent in 2009. The AAP is likely to garner a mere 2 per cent votes and the others are likely to get 7 per cent votes.

In Assam, Congress will in fact increase its vote share from 35 per cent in 2009 elections to 47 per cent now as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll. The BJP is also expected to increase its share from 16 per cent in 2009 to 19 now while Asom Gana Parishad's (AGP) share sees a big drop from 15 to 9 per cent.

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