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Odisha poll tracker: BJD likely to win 10-16 seats, Congress 3-9

Jan 20, 2014 08:48 PM IST Politics Politics

New Delhi: Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik who is seeking his fourth consecutive term in the simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha and Assembly is still going very strong. The state has 21 Lok Sabha seats and the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is expected to maintain its lead by winning 10-16 seats. The main opposition Congress is expected to win 3-9 seats and the BJP is projected to win 0-4 seats, according to the seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar.

Even though he is expected to get just 33 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha elections, Patnaik is likely to sweep the Assembly elections with 49 per cent votes. The Congress is likely to get 28 per cent votes, the BJP 13 per cent, others 1 per cent and 9 per cent of the electorate are undecided as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.

In Lok Sabha polls, the BJD is likely to get 33 per cent votes while in 2009, the party secured the backing of 37 per cent of the electorate. The Congress is likely to get 31 per cent votes down from 33 in 2009. The BJP is projected to get 25 per cent votes. Its vote share was 17 per cent in 2009. The AAP is expected to get a mere 1 per cent votes and the others are expected to get 10 per cent votes.

A large number of people are satisfied with the BJD government of Naveen Patnaik. According to the election tracker, most people are satisfied with the way the BJD government handled the aftermath of Cyclone Phailin, particularly in costal Odisha.

One more interesting aspect of the survey is popularity of the BJD government. It is still highly popular, but the satisfaction level seems to have declined in the last six months. There has been a drop of 12 per cent between 2013 and 2014. The current overall popularity rating is 67 per cent for the BJD.

However, Naveen Patnaik is more popular than his government. His popularity rating is 70 per cent and just 26 per cent people are not happy with him while three per cent voters have no opinion.

The anti-BJD government mood has also increased since the last survey conducted in July 2013. To a question, should the BJD government in Odisha get another chance, 51 per cent voters have replied in the affirmative. It was 66 per cent in July 2013. A total of 35 per cent voters say that the BJD government should not get another chance while 14 per cent have no opinion.

One more interesting thing is dissatisfaction with the UPA government is still high, but has marginally declined in the last 6 months. While 33 per cent voters say that they are satisfied with the UPA government at the Centre, it was 32 per cent in July 2013.

But a huge 54 per cent of the voters still say that they are not happy with the UPA government. It was 58 per cent in July 2013.

In fact, 31 per cent voters feel that the UPA should get another chance in the Lok Sabha polls. However, 54 per cent voters feel that the UPA should not get another chance while 15 per cent have no opinion.

Narendra Modi leads PM race:

The most interesting aspect is the support for BJP's Narendra Modi as PM with 33 per cent voters backing him for the post. Just 12 per cent back Naveen Patnaik for the post of PM. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has the backing of 19 per cent and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has just 1 per cent support for the post of PM.

AAP impact in Odisha

Nearly half of the respondents have heard of the AAP and one-third of the voters want the party to contest from their Lok Sabha seat. But, only about 12 per cent show interest in voting for the AAP.

The sample size for Odisha is 978.


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